Two separate pieces of news landed in the same week of October 2026 and together they change how procurement teams should read the nickel alloy pipe market. The International Nickel Study Group (INSG) reversed its 2026 balance from deficit to surplus, and Indonesia confirmed a mining quota for 2026 that is roughly 30-40 Mt above its original target.
Neither headline is dramatic on its own. Together they point in one direction: the primary nickel market is loosening, and the cost floor under stainless and nickel alloy material is moving down rather than up.
What INSG actually changed
At its meetings on 12-13 October 2026, the INSG forecast the global primary nickel market to record a surplus of 19,000 t in 2026. This reverses the group’s earlier forecast of a 32,000 t deficit. The group also expects the surplus to widen to 70,000 t in 2027, as production growth outpaces consumption.
The 2026 surplus is small in absolute terms, and it is worth being precise about the scale. The same 2025 calendar year produced a surplus of 299,000 t. So the swing from a 32,000 t deficit forecast to a 19,000 t surplus forecast is a 51,000 t revision in the balance, but the 2026 outcome is still one-sixteenth the size of 2025’s actual surplus.
What matters for buyers is not the size of the number but its direction. A deficit forecast supports prices; a surplus forecast caps them. As SteelMint put it in reporting on the meeting, expectations of renewed supply growth limit price recovery.
The price and inventory picture
LME three-month nickel fell 2.3% week-on-week to $15,355/t on 16 October 2026, from $15,720/t a week earlier. LME inventories fell 1% to 279,990 t from 282,864 t. Chinese market commentary from Huatai Futures, published 20 October 2026, put SHFE nickel warrants at 92,938 t and LME inventory at 280,110 t on the prior trading day, with SHFE nickel main-contract settlement at 117,150 CNY/t on 19 October.
| Indicator | Value | Date | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| LME 3-month nickel | $15,355/t (down 2.3% w/w from $15,720/t) | 16 Oct 2026 | SteelMint |
| LME inventory | 279,990 t (down 1% from 282,864 t) | 16 Oct 2026 | SteelMint |
| INSG 2026 primary nickel balance | Surplus 19,000 t (revised from 32,000 t deficit) | 12-13 Oct 2026 meeting | INSG via SteelMint |
| INSG 2027 forecast balance | Surplus 70,000 t | 12-13 Oct 2026 meeting | INSG via SteelMint |
| 2025 actual balance | Surplus 299,000 t | full year 2025 | INSG via SteelMint |
| Indonesia 2026 RKAB revised quota | approx. 290 Mt (vs initial 250-260 Mt target) | confirmed 16 Oct 2026 | ESDM, via Huatai Futures |
| Indonesia HMA, 2nd half of October | $15,847.67/t (down 2.91% from 1st half) | Oct 2026 | Huatai Futures |
| China stainless crude steel output, Sept 2026 | 3.5552 Mt across 43 mills | updated 9 Oct 2026 | Mysteel via Huatai Futures |
| China stainless output, Oct 2026 forecast | 3.5140 Mt, down 1.16% month-on-month | forecast | Mysteel via Huatai Futures |
| 300-series stainless, Oct 2026 forecast | 1.8028 Mt, down 6.22% month-on-month | forecast | Mysteel via Huatai Futures |
Indonesia’s quota decision is the larger lever
Indonesia’s mining directorate general confirmed on 16 October 2026 that the 2026 nickel ore RKAB revised quota stands at approximately 290 Mt. The initial target had been 250-260 Mt, so the approved volume is roughly 30-40 Mt higher. The 2027 quota is still under evaluation and is expected to be finalised before 2027; the application window for 2027 RKAB closes on 15 November.
A separate policy signal came from India’s state-owned minerals company NMDC, which has suspended plans to enter the nickel industry, partly out of concern about Indonesian oversupply. Indonesian production accounts for more than 60% of global nickel output, so policy decisions in Jakarta set the marginal cost curve for everyone else.
Indonesia is also considering restrictions on new smelters producing semi-finished nickel products, including nickel pig iron and ferronickel, to address oversupply and push value further downstream. As SteelMint noted on 17 October, the proposal remains under consideration with scope and timeline unconfirmed, so its near-term supply impact is uncertain.
What this means if you buy nickel alloy pipe
Alloy surcharge pressure is more likely to ease than to tighten. Nickel alloy pipe pricing typically carries a metal component plus a conversion component. A softening primary nickel market works against surcharge increases. That does not mean prices fall; it means the resistance to a surcharge increase is stronger than it was when INSG was forecasting a deficit.
Lead times on standard grades are unlikely to tighten. A surplus forecast and a raised quota both point to adequate upstream availability. For standard 600-series and 800-series grades in common sizes, this argues for normal procurement scheduling rather than expediting.
The 300-series cut is the number to watch. October’s forecast 300-series output of 1.8028 Mt is down 6.22% month-on-month, driven by mill maintenance and production restructuring. 300-series is the 304 and 316 austenitic family, and it is the base grade set for stainless and nickel alloy pipe. A sustained decline in 300-series output, if it continues into 2027, would tighten the austenitic side even while the primary nickel balance stays in surplus. This is the one place where the surplus narrative and the stainless narrative point in opposite directions.
2027 quota approval is the next date that matters. The application window closes 15 November 2026. If the 2027 quota rises again, the cost floor falls again. Buyers with 2027 project schedules should watch that window rather than the spot price.
One caution on reading these numbers
The figures above are primary nickel balances, ore quotas and exchange prices. They are not alloy pipe prices. Alloy pipe pricing also depends on chromium, molybdenum, iron and ferroalloy inputs, on the specific grade’s alloy content, and on conversion and testing requirements. A grade such as Alloy 625 carries substantial molybdenum and niobium content, so its cost does not track the nickel price alone.
For anything you need quoted against a specific grade and specification, send us the grade, the standard and the quantity and we will price it against current inputs rather than an index guess.
Nickel alloy seamless pipe and our full pipe and tube range are both stocked against current mill input costs. Request a quotation for your grade and size range through our contact page, or message us on WhatsApp for a same-day response on stock items.
